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The inflation forecast is the most important aspect of the most crucial economic decision that the RBI makes — it needs to be more in tune with reality.The Indian economy has likely gone through a mega structural-break experience via demonetisation....
This article takes as given the accuracy of opinion polls. It offers instead a suggestion towards improving forecasts of elections where traditional assumptions may not be valid. What is offered is a consistent, and ex-ante correction, to polling data. This...
Not only lockdowns were not effective, but that, in a large majority of cases, lockdowns were counter-productive i.e. led to more infections, and deaths than would have been the case with no lockdowns.
It is the most definitive account of the history of Indian elections, chronicling the political and economic background against which it has been unfolding since 1952
Over the past 50 years, India has been a pioneer in discussing and introducing policies toward the alleviation of hunger and poverty. India’s performance record is somewhere between good and excellent in terms of achievement of goals; unfortunately, the specific...
Most commentators have attributed the current agrarian crisis to two successive droughts and demonetization. While droughts do have an adverse impact on agricultural sector, disaggregated data categorically demonstrates that demonetization did not lead to acceleration in the decline of the...
There is a raging controversy about whether poverty levels in India have increased in the nineties, a period co-incident with the ushering in of major economic reforms.
A background report on Employment in India for the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM)
GDP Growth in India has slowed down to less than 7%, from the recent high level of 8.2% in 2015-16. It is widely believed that the demonetization experiment, announced by Prime Minister Modi on November 8, 2016, is responsible for...
The Report’s conclusion of 9 % growth in UPA-I (2004/5-2008/9) maybe, in reality, close to 6 % per annum. More needs to be researched by all of us before jumping to conclusions.